States told to prepare for worst-case swine flu scenario

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The nation's secretary of health and human services told government leaders at a swine-flu preparedness summit Thursday that a vaccine to fight the H1N1 virus should be ready for distribution in mid-October.

Kathleen Sebelius also advised 500 government, health and education leaders to plan for the worst-case scenario: that the virus will reappear with renewed strength this fall.

"What we need to assume is that it will come back in a much more severe form," she said at the conference in Washington.

Commonly called swine flu, the virus is also known as influenza A(H1N1). The World Health Organization declared the virus a global pandemic on June 11.

Sebelius emphasized that extensive forward planning to combat the spread of the virus could always be scaled back later, but that officials could not delay starting work on those preparations.

"We can step back from our planning. What we can't do is wait until October," she explained.

The fight against H1N1 will be federally funded, the secretary said. She said the government will announce $350 million in preparedness grants on Friday: $260 million will go to state health departments and $90 million to hospitals preparing for a possible surge of patients.

The summit was requested by President Obama. He spoke to the group via video link from Italy, where he is attending the G-8 meeting of industrialized nations

"We want to make sure we aren't promoting panic, but we are promoting vigilance and preparation," Obama said.

Obama urged state and local officials, including school districts, to prepare for a vaccination campaign in the fall and to anticipate that schools could be significantly affected by the virus.

Health care workers hope to evaluate a candidate vaccine against H1N1 in early August, said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who also spoke at the meeting.

Sebelius said medical experts are testing virus strains, preparing the production lines and beginning clinical trials.

She said the initial target group for the vaccine will be pregnant women, children ages 5 to 17, health care workers, the elderly, and anyone with chronic health conditions such as asthma.

A new Web site has been set up for H1N1, http://www.flu.gov/, which has information on the virus and helpful tips.

Swine flu continues to circulate in the United States and more than 120 other countries -- especially in the southern hemisphere, where flu season is under way. The virus could hit the United States as children are returning to school, which is only a few weeks away, Sebelius told CNN earlier in the day.

Thursday's symposium is an opportunity to look ahead and begin to put things in place, Sebelius explained on CNN's "American Morning."

There are more than 33,900 confirmed and probable cases of the H1N1 virus in the United States, with 170 deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More than 98,000 cases have been documented worldwide, with 440 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

The virus has bucked traditional flu outbreak patterns. Influenza is typically more active during winter and then slows when the weather turns hot.

"Now, in the UK, as in many of the North American countries -- Canada, Mexico and the United States -- there has been quite widespread activity, or a lot of activity of this pandemic influenza virus. And right now, it is at a typical point of the year where the activity should be pretty low, but the activity is quite high because it is a pandemic situation for these countries," Keiji Fukuda, WHO assistant director-general, said this week.

Regular seasonal flu kills about 36,000 Americans annually. Sebelius said the vaccine for seasonal flu is ready for use.